Audio excerpt — Palestinian people cheering

DANIEL:

This Sunday, fighting will stop in Gaza after a ceasefire deal was reached between Israel and Hamas.

DANIEL:

Amongst the ruins, thousands of Palestinians have been on the streets celebrating, hugging and singing, as the news spread that an agreement had finally been reached. After 15 months of war and a lengthy, drawn out negotiation process with many false starts.

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DANIEL:

If the agreement holds, desperately needed humanitarian aid will reach the people of Gaza, many who are living in freezing tents in the middle of winter. And dozens of hostages who have been held in Gaza will return home to Israel.

From Schwartz Media, I’m Daniel James. This is 7am.

Today, Research Director at The Washington Institute Dana Stroul. Dana was the most senior civilian at the Pentagon focused on the Middle East when the war began.

She tells us how the deal was struck and how Trump and Biden, each claiming the victory as their own, obscures an unlikely alliance.

It’s Friday, January 17.

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DANIEL:

Dana, thanks so much for joining us again. What can you tell us about this deal? How was it brokered and who was involved in the negotiations?

DANA:

Well, it's been the United States, Israel, Hamas, but then because the United States and Hamas don't talk to each other directly, there's been key regional partners that have been part of this. So very specifically Egypt and Qatar. A lot of the Hamas political leadership has actually been living in Doha, the capital of Qatar, for many, many years now. And so what's happened for the past really since October 8th is the United States and Egypt and Qatar and Israel have talks. And then the Qataris and the Egyptians relay that to Hamas in Doha. Somehow those negotiations get to the military wing of Hamas inside Gaza, and then responses would come back out of Gaza and all the way back to those negotiators in Doha. So that's what has been going on for more than a year.

DANIEL:

Can you walk us through some of the key aspects of the agreement, Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and the release of hostages?

DANA:

Sure. So what's really important about this agreement is that it happens in phases and in each phase, the idea is that if each side adheres to its commitments, you move on to the next phase, which is time bound. So this first really critical one is let's call it a cessation of hostilities, not a full permanent cease fire.

So in the first phase, which is 42 days, Hamas has agreed to release 33 Israeli hostages. And we don't know how many of the hostages that will be in this group are alive and how many are actually bodies that are going to be returned, but largely, these are what's called humanitarian hostages. So women, children, elderly and injured.

So what's very notable here is not soldiers that were taken on October 7th. And in exchange for Israeli civilians, Israel has agreed to release a number of Palestinian prisoners, many of whom have already been convicted for acts for terrorism and are being held inside Israel in Israeli prisons. And for Israeli soldiers, so here we're talking about the female Israeli soldiers that remain inside Gaza, Israel will release even more Palestinian prisoners for each of those individuals.

During these 42 days in addition, there will be what's called a surge in humanitarian aid. So hundreds and hundreds of trucks going in. And also the Israeli Defence Forces, who are now all over Gaza, also in populated areas, have committed to move back into a buffer zone along the borders of Gaza.

That all is supposed to happen over the course of these 42 days. And if those both sides commitments are met, then you move on to the next phase, which is incrementally moving towards a more permanent cease fire.

DANIEL:

In relation to the hostages, if 33 Israeli hostages are released, how many does that leave in Gaza? Do we know?

DANA:

We don't know. So over 200 Israelis were taken on October 7th. And of course, in this mix of Israelis, there were also foreign workers like Thai workers and also a lot of dual nationals. So what's been one of the most frustrating factors over this more than a year of negotiations is that Hamas either doesn't know or has refused to disclose the state, so the health status of all of these hostages and how many actually are still alive.

DANIEL:

The death toll in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry, is more than 46,600. What immediate changes will the deal bring to civilians remaining in Gaza?

DANA:

Well, the most immediate change, hopefully, if both sides hold up to their commitments, is what's described as a surge in humanitarian aid. And so what we're talking about here is hundreds and hundreds of trucks going into Gaza every day that will carry medical supplies, water, food, etcetera. The challenge, of course, is that the scale of need is just so stark in Gaza. And the challenge we're going to have going forward here is that there's still not a great network to make sure that criminal elements, Hamas and others don't weaponise or take aid for their own purposes that actually leads to even more of a war time economy.

DANIEL:

You mentioned the scale of need in Gaza. What’s it like for the people still living there now?

DANA:

It's pretty terrible. A very significant percentage of structures, so buildings in which Palestinians live are destroyed. A large percentage of Palestinians are living in tents right now. Winter is coming in Gaza and so there is a huge problem of these temporary shelters not being warm or secure enough for what human beings need to be safe, to be warm.

Many of the hospitals have been taken offline, so there's a shortage of medicine, there's a shortage of water. A lot of the water treatment facilities are not operating. Clean, consistent water is a challenge, which means that communicable diseases are spreading.

DANIEL:

Over the past year, there have been many attempts to negotiate a ceasefire deal with reports that ceasefire deals have actually been closed only to fall over at the last minute. What's different this time around?

DANA:

I think a few things are different. The first, of course, is the election of Donald Trump, who you can see, I would say, not only in relation to the cease fire and Hamas-Israel negotiations, but all over the Middle East. You could see all different actors, both friendly to the United States and enemies of the United States, like Iran, positioning in messaging based on anticipation of a very different approach by Donald Trump's national security team to issues in the Middle East. And he has made different kinds of threats since his election that if the hostages weren't released, there would be hell to pay.

Audio excerpt — Donald Trump:

“If those hostages aren't back – I don't want to hurt your negotiation – If they're not back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East.”

DANA:

He's also made it very clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel and his governing coalition that he wants to see a cease fire, that he didn't want to have an active military conflict when he gets inaugurated.

The other really big factor here that I think is important to mention is that the entire strategic landscape of the Middle East is just different today than it was on October 7th. So if you think about where we were on October 7th, Iran has spent decades investing in this network of terrorist groups and proxies all across the region. That's Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the militias in Iraq and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen. And, of course, he had a state partner in Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

And you look across the region today, Hamas largely dismantled, incapable of launching the kind of attack we saw on October 7th. The entire senior leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon taken out. We have a new president and prime minister in Lebanon who definitely doesn’t want to see Hezbollah retain its stranglehold and its Iranian influence there. Bashar al-Assad fled Syria and is hiding out in Moscow. A new government is taking hold in Syria, very antagonistic toward Iran. And then Iran itself has been targeted by Israel twice over the course of 2024. And Iran itself is more its territory, more vulnerable today than it has been at any point in decades.

So the strategic table was reset and Hamas found itself alone. And I think that dynamic change, the openness of the leaders to agree, at least to this first phase of the cease fire.

DANIEL:

Coming up after the break, what it will take to rebuild Gaza?

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DANIEL:

Dana, both President Biden and President elect Trump have claimed credit for the ceasefire deal, with Trump saying it could have only happened as a result of him winning the presidency.

Audio excerpt — American News Presenter:

“The incoming president just posted on his Truth Social: ‘This epic cease fire agreement could only have happened as a result of our historic victory in November.’”

DANIEL:

And President Biden saying he laid out the precise contours of this plan in May last year.

Audio excerpt — Joe biden:

“This is the cease fire agreement I introduced last spring. Today, Hamas and Israel have agreed to that cease fire agreement.”

DANIEL:

So what role did both parties play? And how should we think about American involvement in this deal?

DANA:

So I actually think both sides get credit, which isn't probably a politically popular thing to say, but here's the reality. If you think about the campaign that we just saw in the United States and the vitriol and the really antagonistic rhetoric between the Biden and the Trump camps and the competing visions for America's role in the world, we actually saw the two national security teams after the election put politics aside and work together hand in hand. And I think that's just remarkable that they decided to prioritise Israeli lives and Palestinian lives.

And I think this could not have happened without the active role, participation of the government of Qatar and the government of Egypt. And I think that it reinforces that there really isn't an America alone approach in the Middle East.

DANIEL:

Given the closeness of the relationship between Netanyahu and Donald Trump, with Netanyahu visiting Mar a Lago on several occasions. Why didn't Netanyahu wait until Trump was sworn in and give him the victory for this, the credit for this outright?

DANA:

Well, first of all, Donald Trump was actually quite clear that he wanted the cease fire before he was inaugurated. So I actually think this is Netanyahu hearing Trump very clearly, number one. And number two, yes the cease fire has been announced. Both sides have made their agreements. There's still action that needs to be taken within the Israeli government because the entire government is going to need to endorse the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons in order to release and get the Israeli hostages home. So you’re going to see those images, but probably actually on the other side of Trump's inauguration.

DANIEL:

With much of Gaza in ruins, how feasible is it for civilians to return to what's left?

DANA:

Well civilians can move around. That's part of the agreement of this cease fire. So what the Israelis have done over the course of 2024 is position themselves across the middle of Gaza, this corridor called the Netzarim Corridor. And what it's done is divide northern Gaza from southern Gaza. But what's happened now is a lot of Palestinians from northern Gaza are stuck in southern Gaza and they can't get back to their homes. And so what's going to happen as the cease fire further gets implemented if we get into these subsequent phases, is that the Israel Defence Forces are going to remove themselves from this corridor, the Netzarim Corridor, and Palestinians are going to be able to move back to their homes. But the reality is they're not going to find much there. And Palestinians want safety. They want some sort of basic law and order. They want to send their kids to school. They want to know that they're going to have medicine, food, clean water for their kids, and they want to live a good life.

And the reality is that the surge in humanitarian aid is just not going to be sufficient. We need to be talking about massive amounts of international support for clearing the rubble, getting unexploded ordnance from this war out so that kids can run around, people can be safe. We need to talk about building materials that need to get back in to rebuild. And you need a government as some sort of authority, as a civilian governance structure to organise that. And there's absolutely no consensus on what that would look like to deliver that kind of relief to Palestinians.

DANIEL:

Well, we look on in hope in the meantime. Dana, thank you so much for your time.

DANIEL:

Thanks for having me.

DANIEL:

Overnight we saw just how fragile this deal is. According to reporting in The New York Times, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has now said he won't finalise the ceasefire agreement yet, citing Hamas backing down on some aspects of the deal, without saying what they were. Hamas has denied the claim.

Meanwhile negotiators continued working on details including which Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange for hostages in Gaza.

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DANIEL:

Also in the news today

President Joe Biden has delivered his final address while in office.

As well as highlighting his role in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, he also called for an 18-year limit for the supreme court, a ban on “dark money” funding campaigns and said presidents should not be immune to legal consequences for crimes committed while in office.

President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Monday.

AND

Bill Shorten’s retirement from politics has prompted a cabinet reshuffle, with Amanda Rishworth becoming the new minister for the NDIS and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher picking up the government services portfolio.

Sports and aged care minister Anika Wells has been promoted to cabinet, following her work on aged care reform. Her promotion means the front bench will have an equal split of men and women for the first time.

7am is a daily show from Schwartz Media and The Saturday Paper.

It’s made by Atticus Bastow, Cheyne Anderson, Chris Dengate, Erik Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah McVeigh, Travis Evans, Zoltan Fecso and me, Daniel James.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

That’s all for now, see you next week.

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