[Theme Music Starts]

RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

In December last year, a group of crossbenchers dialled into a secret call with the Albanese government.

It was to get a briefing on a government-commissioned report on the national security risks posed by climate change – a report the government has been sitting on since early 2023.

Described by one senator as “frankly terrifying,” the Climate Risk Assessment has not been shared with the Greens, the Coalition or even the relevant parliamentary committee on intelligence.

Now, as a federal election looms, crossbenchers warn it’s “recklessly negligent” to keep the report’s findings hidden from Australians.

Today, chief political correspondent for The Saturday Paper Karen Barlow, on why the government is keeping national security threats a secret.

It’s Wednesday, March 19.

[Theme Music Ends]

RUBY:

So Karen, there's a report that the government commissioned a while ago, but since receiving it has been keeping secret and we know it's about the national security implications of climate change. What else do we know?

KAREN:

Well, not a lot. And that's by design. It's a secret report by an intelligence agency. And it was a Labor election promise to do it but it seems there was no promise to actually make it public.

Audio excerpt — Anthony Albanese:

“Climate change is a national security issue. That is well understood throughout the world but nowhere more so than with our Pacific neighbours.”

KAREN:

It is known as the Climate Risk Assessment Report, and it was done by the Office of National Intelligence, with significant input by defence. And it was led by the Director General of the Office of National Intelligence, Andrew Shearer. And that's important because he's highly respected. He is a former national security adviser to former prime ministers John Howard and Tony Abbott.

It is an assessment of the national security impact of a warming planet for Australia. It was delivered sometime early 2023, but not released publicly. I've been covering the calls, largely from the crossbench, the Greens and climate groups, to release the report for years now, and that was to inform the public. But I was hugely surprised, actually, to hear that there had been a briefing, not just recently, but way back on December 9, to a group of the progressive crossbench. It wasn't to everyone, not to the Greens and certainly not to the Coalition. And I understand also the report has not been before the powerful and largely bipartisan Joint Parliamentary Committee on Intelligence and Security. So they were all excluded from this particular briefing.

RUBY:

Right. Okay so, there are a select few people being briefed on this report. So tell me more about who those independents are and what they're saying about the briefing in the report itself.

KAREN:

What they're saying is almost nothing. Consider this report still secret and it seems that's the way the government wants it. December 9 when this briefing was heard, was a non sitting day of Parliament. People, I understand, dialled in on a secure line from all around the country. I was told that there were no advisers present, it's described as the principals only. But I do know that Helen Haines, the independent member for Indi, was on the call. Also Andrew Wilkie. I spoke to the member for Warringah, Zali Steggall, she would not even confirm that she was even in the briefing but she does want to say that she still wants the report released. The most I heard was from the ACT Senator David Pocock. He said the assessment was, quote, frankly terrifying, But he couldn't say any more, other than to say that Australia was woefully underprepared for what's coming.

RUBY:

Okay, so why the secrecy, Karen? What has the federal government said about why the report is still classified and why their briefing about it was so selective?

KAREN:

Well, it's a good question about why it's still classified. I did ask. I tried first with the deputy prime minister, Richard Marles. I was told it was he who organised the briefing after pressure from the crossbenchers. He declined. I tried also with the Prime Minister. Anthony Albanese has responsibility for the Office of National Intelligence. I got a statement from a spokesperson saying that the Albanese government is committed to action on climate change. We engage constructively with the crossbench and that engagement includes regular briefings. Some briefings, the statement says, are confidential and we trust that that confidentiality is respected. So didn't get a lot back while the crossbenchers are out there saying no. In fact, this is, they say, recklessly negligent not to have the public understand what is needed to take climate change action. But look, the government hasn't explained why the Coalition and the Greens were not also part of this particular briefing. The Greens, in particular the senator David Shoebridge, who's the defence spokesperson for the Greens, he was front and centre with the crossbenchers calling for this report to be released over the past few years. He wasn't included and he describes those on the inside as being effectively gagged.

He tells me that both Labor and the Coalition are notorious for offering confidential briefings to their opponents as a way of silencing public criticism. He says that once you're told what's in the briefing, you can't talk about it because there it's reinforce that it has to be secret.

RUBY:

After the break - what Australia risks by not being transparent.

[Advertisement]

RUBY:

Karen, the government is trying to keep this report on the national security implications of climate change secret. Many people are saying that it should be made public, that we need to know about the potential threats here. So, I know that you haven't read the report, but you have been looking into the types of threats that we're likely to face as a result of climate change. What have you found out?

KAREN:

One of the main arguments from those wanting the report public is that there are reports from comparable nations like the UK, the US and most lately Germany, that they have similar reports already in the public domain.

Audio excerpt — News Reporter:

“America's top intelligence agencies released a report today highlighting the mounting threats that rising temperatures, droughts and extreme weather posed to our national security.”

KAREN:

I did look at the US National Intelligence Committee report. It warns of increasing geopolitical tensions over resources and who will pay for global decarbonisation.

Audio excerpt — News Reporter:

“The Pentagon's analysis says, quote, in worst case scenarios, climate change related impacts could stress economic and social conditions that contribute to mass migration events or political crises, civil unrest, shifts in the regional balance of power, or even state failure.”

KAREN:

So there are reports already out there. Australia stands out for keeping its own climate risk assessment classified. I spoke with Admiral Chris Barrie, he's a former chief of the Defence Force. He's also on the executive of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group and he's been calling for this to be public for a long time. He actually strongly encouraged Labor to put this on its agenda before the last election, and he says that the most terrifying aspect of the report would be the potential for huge numbers of displaced people from other countries, such as Bangladesh. He says there's likely to be millions of Bangladeshis seeking refuge in Australia. Bangladesh is losing a large part of its territory to rising sea levels, and he says that's a scenario the government must prepare for.

RUBY:

And this level of secrecy, how unusual is it?

KAREN:

So Chris Barrie says there's a pattern here. It's not just the national security assessment that is secret. There's also the update to the domestic national climate risk assessment and that is a more domestic focussed one about the risks. So I have been told by Chris Barrie that he believes that it's been buried. I did ask about this, and the official word is that the work on this assessment has been more complex than expected and it's nearing finalisation. It's understood that the election, of course, bearing down on us right now is disrupting its delivery. And so we're still waiting to see when it will turn up. But I guess what we're seeing here is that there is this wrap up of climate change. We're getting the major parties framing it as something of an economic issue, a cost of living issue. We're talking about bills all the time. And again, while that is not to be put aside, we're not talking about the bigger, sort of, existential risk of climate change.

RUBY:

Yeah, there is this question, I suppose, around who the secrecy is serving. But then the bigger issue, as you say, is what does it actually mean that we're living in an increasingly unstable world that is on the cusp of dramatic shifts because of climate change. So what sense do you get about whether or not the federal government is prepared enough for that reality?

KAREN:

This is something that we're not talking about. I spoke to the former US special envoy on climate Jonathan Pershing, he was just recently in Australia. He pointed out that one of the reasons why the United States likes to make these sort of assessments public and put out there, there's a sheer cost involved in these challenges and it has to go before Congress, and Congress needs to get that feedback from the public before it can make these changes and commit the money. So, it's not something that Australia is doing right here.

RUBY:

Karen, thank you so much for your time.

KAREN:

Thank you.

[Advertisement]

[Theme Music Starts]

RUBY:

Also in the news today...

The Israeli military says it has hit targets in Gaza with airstrikes, with the Palestinian health ministry officials reporting at least 200 dead including several children.

The strikes, which were reported in multiple locations, end a weeks-long standoff over extending the ceasefire which came into effect in January, the first phase of which expired on March 1st.

And,

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has raised concerns about the broader hit to the global economy as a result of US tariffs.

Speaking one week ahead of the federal budget, the treasurer said Australia needs to focus on resilience rather than retaliation in response to tariffs of 25 percent on steel and aluminium exports which took effect last week.

Global growth over the next three years is expected to be its weakest since the 1990s.

I'm Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See you tomorrow.

[Theme Music Ends]