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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

Donald Trump’s presence looms large on the campaign trail, as both leaders face questions about how they would handle his trade war.

The market chaos, the uncertainty, the escalation of tensions between China and the US may have all seemed like the last thing Labor needed in the middle of an election campaign.

But Labor insiders now believe they’ve been granted a rare opportunity: to hold firm in the face of uncertainty and prove it’s too risky to change government at a time like this.

Today, special correspondent for The Saturday Paper, Jason Koutsoukis, on Anthony Albanese’s Trump strategy and how Peter Dutton is fighting back.

It’s Wednesday, April 16.

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RUBY:

So Jason, thank you for speaking with me. You've been watching very closely as the Prime Minister fields questions about Trump on the campaign trail. What have you noticed about Anthony Albanese's responses?

JASON:

The Prime Minister has wanted to draw as much attention as possible to what Donald Trump is doing in the US, but without actually kind of naming Trump himself.

Audio Excerpt - Anthony Albanese:

“People will look at similar policies around the world and they will make their own decision.”

JASON:

The Prime Minister is hinting that Peter Dutton's policies are inspired by Donald Trump and his Make America Great Again movement, but he's not actually naming Trump.

Audio Excerpt - Anthony Albanese:

“I don't want to see the Americanisation of the health system. I want the Australian system, what medicare should be, which is...”

JASON:

So when the Prime Minister talks about the Americanisation of the health care system, I think what he's saying is that Peter Dutton wants to turn Australia's health system into a US style health system and apply the same sort of cuts to health care that Donald Trump is trying to force through in the US.

Audio Excerpt - Anthony Albanese:

“Peter Dutton’s position was that you shouldn’t see doctors for free, he tried to abolish bulk-billing by having a GP tax.”

JASON:

And of course, it's not just the Prime Minister who's been out there trying to link Peter Dutton to Donald Trump. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been doing it too.

Audio Excerpt - Jim Chalmers:

“We've got an opposition leader and an opposition which is absolutely full of these kind of DOGE-y sycophants, who have hitched their waggon to American style slogans and policies and, especially, cuts which would make Australians worse off.”

JASON:

And the other thing, of course, that the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, has been trying to do is contrast the stable, sure-footedness of the Albanese government with the complete sort of chaos that we're seeing in Washington.

Audio Excerpt - Jim Chalmers:

“And so this is a pretty important choice, a Prime Minister speaking up for Australia and standing up for Australians, or an opposition leader and an opposition who have made it clear for some time that they take their cues and their instructions and their policies directly from the US.”

JASON:

And I think to prepare for what the consequences of those market swings might be on the Australian economy, Jim Chalmers has brought together the heads of the Big Four Banks, the CEO of Macquarie Group, the heads of the key superannuation funds. He's also convened the Council of Financial Regulators.

Audio Excerpt - News Reporter:

“The treasurer walking off the election campaign and straight into an emergency meeting with the reserve bank, planning for a global economic meltdown.”

Audio Excerpt - Jim Chalmers:

“We are confident we can weather these global conditions but we're not complacent about that.”

RUBY:

Okay and given how little transparency there is around Trump and what his next moves might be, what is your view on whether or not by having these meetings, Chalmers is actually making anything happen or, you know, is something like this really just performative?

JASON:

Look, I think it is performative. Jim Chalmers is putting on a show here for voters. But I think there is a purpose there too. If he wasn't getting the insights and views from people like Michelle Bullock, the heads of the four banks, then I think people would be wondering whether or not Jim Chalmers really is in control and does he really understand the gravity of what's happening out there in global financial markets. And I'm sure that the information that is being exchanged in those meetings will ultimately be useful for how the government responds to this crisis.

RUBY:

And we know a lot of work has been done to try and negotiate our way out of tariffs that ultimately did not work and we were hit with that 10% baseline figure, like a lot of other countries were. But given we are now in caretaker mode, where have we left those negotiations?

JASON:

Well, I think the negotiations are very much on hold. The government is certainly looking at other things it can do if they are re-elected on May the 3rd. The Trade Minister, Don Farrell, and the Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, and the Prime Minister himself, have all ruled out concessions on things such as the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme, which the US has cited as being detrimental to its own pharmaceutical industry. The US is also very unhappy with Australia's biosecurity measures, which it argues unfairly disadvantage US agricultural products, you know, on sale here in Australia. So I think the government has said that those things are non-negotiable but there are a lot of things we don't know. And I guess that the biggest thing we don’t know is just to what extent the government would be prepared to offer up Australia's critical minerals as a, sort of, bargaining chip in these negotiations. We know that China is thinking of restricting access for US companies to its critical minerals exports, so we know that the US is very interested in securing a supply of critical minerals. And this is something that Australia is in a position to offer. So we just don't know what the government's exactly thinking about there.

RUBY:

And these moves that Trump is making, I mean, they're about trade but they're also bigger than that, aren't they? He's really testing us and everyone else for weakness and seeing, you know, how we respond. So if you are to look at the situation from that lens, how important is it that we hit the right note with these negotiations?

JASON:

Well I think it's very important. The US alliance is sacrosanct for both major parties and neither the Prime Minister nor Peter Dutton would do anything that could be seen as jeopardising the strength of the alliance.

In the past, whenever Labor has been seen to criticise the US alliance, it has really damaged the party electorally. We saw that happen to Arthur Colwell in the 1960s. We saw it happen a little bit to Gough Whitlam. We even saw it with Simon Crean when he was opposition leader and was just a little critical of the then Bush administration over the war in Iraq.

So the last thing Anthony Albanese wants to do is to be seen to undermine the US alliance in any wa and whenever he talks about the US, he's very careful to talk about how important this relationship is and how committed to the relationship the Australian Labor Party is. And of course, for Peter Dutton and the Coalition, the US Alliance has always been a bedrock for them in terms of Australia's foreign policy and there's no way Peter Dutton is going to do anything either that would be seen to weaken the US alliance.

RUBY:

Coming up - Peter Dutton and the Drake-inspired diss track.

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RUBY:

Jason, as you've mentioned, Chalmers is really trying to pin Dutton to Trump and Labor obviously thinks that's damaging for the Coalition. So how has Dutton talked about how he would handle the issue of trade and how do you think he's responding to that line of attack from Labor?

JASON:

Peter Dutton is trying to convince voters of the idea that if he was prime minister, he would be able to fly over to Washington in the first 60 days of his prime ministership, get a one-on-one meeting with President Trump and talk him around into dropping the levies that he's put on Australian exports. I'm not sure that's very convincing because what could Peter Dutton possibly offer Donald Trump that no other country has been able to do. Australia is already getting a pretty good deal compared to other countries in Donald Trump's line of fire, and the idea that Peter Dutton could negotiate something very quickly that no other country has been able to do is... it does stretch credulity in my view.

RUBY:

And you came on 7am just after the debate and you said that Dutton had performed well, but that that had come off the back of what had widely been seen as a bad start to the campaign. So since that debate, how do you think Dutton has gone?

JASON:

I think Peter Dutton is doing better in the actual mechanics of campaigning. Those press conferences that he's having each day where he is up against the travelling media party, I think Peter Dutton is showing that he is getting better at responding to those questions. But I think other things are bringing him down and that's hurting his campaign. The big one is policy preparedness.

Audio Excerpt - Peter Dutton:

“So just to deal with the issue just quickly, if I can summarise it this way...”

JASON:

One of Peter Dutton's big policies is this policy to force domestic gas producers to put aside some of the gas they produce so there's always going to be enough gas for Australian consumers. But it's quite a complex policy.

Audio Excerpt - Peter Dutton:

“We need to change the way in which the system works, to bring more gas in, and similarly to what we've done with the 25 centilitre cut on petrol and diesel to make that cheaper for consumers. That's applied across the economy, not just pensioners and families, but also small businesses and bigger businesses, delivery truck drivers. And that's the approach we've taken to gas as well.”

JASON:

Most voters don’t really understand what it is that he wants to do. It’s quite confusing.

Another thing that Peter Dutton has talked about is halving the petrol excise for 12 months. He's got a strange advertisement to try to boost the profile of this petrol excise policy.

Audio Excerpt - Commercial Ad:

“How far can halving the petrol tax take you?”

JASON:

It's an ad, I think, that was entirely made using artificial intelligence that features an alien in it.

Audio Excerpt - Commercial Ad:

“Halving the petrol tax policy does not include fighter jets and is not applicable to extra terrestrials. Ru roh.”

JASON:

And I think while it's, sort of, unusual and perhaps a bit gimmicky, I'm not sure that really is a serious pitch to voters. And I'd say the same thing about this rap song that the Coalition campaign released.

Audio Excerpt - Leaving Labor diss track:

“It ain’t the way that it’s supposed to be. The money we spending on groceries. I just want to buy some eggs and cheese. 100 bucks, you kidding me? It costs too much to live. The economy’s looking a mess. So we living check to check. Labor got us feeling so stressed. We need to find a solution.”

JASON:

It seemed a bit trivial to me. I'm sure it's the serious pitch that Peter Dutton needs to convince voters that he's ready for government. Both the AI ad and this rap song, what both of those things say to me is that the Coalition isn't quite as prepared as it should be. It hasn't put in the hard yards, and it's being forced to resort to, sort of, gimmicky advertising.

RUBY:

Okay. And what about the domestic policy questions? So on cost of living, housing. How is Dutton handling those?

JASON:

Well, another surprise appearance on the campaign trail on Monday was Peter Dutton's son Harry, who told reporters that he was struggling to save enough money to buy a house.

Audio Excerpt - Harry Dutton:

“As you’ve probably heard it's almost impossible to get in in the current state. So, I mean, we’re saving like mad but it doesn’t look like we’ll get there.”

JASON:

But again, you have to question Peter Dutton's judgement there because Peter Dutton, of course, has been a very successful property investor over the years and I don't think anyone doubts that if it really comes down to it, that Peter Dutton is gonna help his son to buy that first home. And of course that's not an option that most parents out there really have. And I think Peter Dutton himself really struggled to answer that question when it was put to him by reporters on the campaign trail.

Audio Excerpt - News Reporter:

“You’re doing pretty well yourself. Why won’t you support him a bit and give him a bit of help with getting his house?”

Audio Excerpt - Peter Dutton:

“I haven’t finished the excellent points I was making. The next point as to why people should vote Liberal...”

JASON:

But finally, I think that the biggest mistake that Peter Dutton has made is this decision to delay the policy rollout to the campaign itself. He's been calling for an election for the last 18 months, yet he hasn't really released any policy over that 18 months, and I think that's the real reason we're starting to see the Coalition fall behind in the campaign by so quickly and by so much. And I think the Coalition, if they do end up losing this election, will come to regret that decision to not have the big policy discussions during the last three years that perhaps they should have, to present themselves as a real alternative government.

RUBY:

Jason, thank you so much for your time.

JASON:

Ruby, absolute pleasure talking with you. Thanks so much.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today...

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has said officials are seeking further information after a report emerged that Russia is seeking to base military aircraft in Indonesia.

The report by a defence and security website says Moscow has requested permission for aircraft to be based in Indonesia’s remote Papua region, on Australia’s northern doorstep.

When asked about the report, Albansese said “We obviously do not want to see Russian influence in our region”.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton called it a troubling development that would be a “catastrophic failure of diplomatic relations”.

And,

The whole Victorian curriculum authority has been sacked after widespread failures in last year’s year 12 exams in the state.

Sample exams containing the real exam questions were accidentally published online, affecting 65 of the 116 VCE subjects, which had been viewed at least 6000 times before the mistake was identified.

The Education Minister, Ben Carroll, said the board had been unprepared for the exams and appointed an interim board to oversee this year’s tests.

I am Ruby Jones, this is 7am. We’ll be back tomorrow with a full breakdown of tonight's leaders debate.

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