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DANIEL:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Daniel James, this is 7am.

In news rooms, and board rooms and electoral offices. There's one question driving everyone insane: When is Anthony Albanese going to call the election?

The prime minister is being coy about it, while nervous backbenchers worried about their seats are willing him to strike now, while the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates is fresh in voters’ minds.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno on what Labor insiders are telling him about when to expect an election, and how Peter Dutton is coping with the government’s week of good news.

It’s Saturday, February 22.

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DANIEL:

Paul, thanks for joining us. This week we had the first rate cut in almost five years. The government has been crowing about it. So are they going to call an election?

PAUL:

Well, that's a question that probably everyone in Australia that's got even a tad of interest in politics is wondering. But none more than the very nervous people on Labor's backbench. I spoke to a couple during the week and as soon as the announcement was made, they said, that's it, that's it. He should go, he shouldn't waste any more time.

And of course, the most nervous, Daniel, are those in what we call the mortgage belt seats and the fringes of our cities. A recent YouGov poll, in fact, said that these Labor seats were in grave danger of falling. One of the seat holders in New South Wales told me that they don't want Albanese to wait for the simple reason that if the Reserve Bank on April 1st, April Fool's Day, doesn't cut rates again, as Governor Michelle Bullock indicated pretty strongly they weren't inclined to, then that would make it a harder selling job for them in the election campaign.

And I can tell you that it wasn't only borrowers who were mightily relieved when the Reserve Bank cut rates, the government let out a sigh of relief that you could almost hear all over Australia. And next day, Jim Chalmers, the Treasurer, well, he went on an interview binge, you might say. He'd done 10 interviews on radio and television by midday.

Audio Excerpt - News Host 1:

“We're joined now by Treasurer Jim Chalmers live in Logan, Queensland.”

Audio Excerpt - News Host 2:

“The Federal Treasurer is Jim Chalmers. He's here this morning. Good morning to you, Jim.”

Audio Excerpt - Jim Chalmers:

“Good morning, Hamish…”

Audio Excerpt - News Host 3:

“Let's go live to the Treasurer, Jim Chalmers-...”

Audio Excerpt - News Host 4:

“Joining us live now is the Treasurer, Jim Chalmers…”

Audio Excerpt - Sarah Ferguson (ABC):

“Treasurer, welcome to 7:30.”

Audio Excerpt - Jim Chalmers:

“Thanks very much, Sarah..”.

PAUL:

One of his colleagues in the cabinet quipped that Jim's become more of a media tart than Kevin Rudd.

DANIEL:

Now, that is saying something. And what about Anthony Albanese? What's he been up to?

PAUL:

Well, Albanese not far behind; he gave a number of interviews on Tuesday afternoon, and again on the airwaves the next day.

Audio Excerpt - News Host 6:

“We're taking you live straight to Sydney where Anthony Albanese is speaking…”

Audio Excerpt - News Host 7:

“We’re joined by the prime minister of Australia Anthony Albanese, good morning!”

Audio Excerpt - Anthony Albanese:

“G'day Raf.”

Audio Excerpt - News Host 8:

“Prime minister, thanks for joining us…”

Audio Excerpt - News Host 9:

“Anthony Albanese joins me. Mr prime minister, you must be happy!”

Audio Excerpt - Anthony Albanese:

“Well I think that Australians will welcome this news…”

PAUL:

But on Thursday, the prime minister pulled off, with the help, it must be said, of the South Australian Labor government under Peter Malinauskas, of, well, a pretty big political coup. In a surprising move, the South Australian Parliament this week passed laws that forced Sanjeev Gupta, the British billionaire who owns the Whyalla steelworks. Well, they forced him out of the steelworks and put the steelworks in administration. The prime minister says this will consolidate the workforce in Whyalla and end the uncertainty that's been plaguing the town for a couple of years.

Audio Excerpt - Anthony Albanese:

“Now this package that we’re putting together here, we’ve been working very hard on, between the South Australian government and the Australian Government. Two Labor governments working together to support jobs. Good quality, good paying jobs.”

PAUL:

They're going to pump in over $300 million to stabilise the steelworks, and they're going to have another $1.9 billion to invest in it, in the hope that someone will then buy this refurbished steelworks, which, by the way, is going to have a distinctly green tinge about it. And Blue Scope, which I think is owned by BHP, is expressing interest already. So that's a big announcement, and Albanese says this proves that when we say we're investing in a future made in Australia, we mean what we say.

DANIEL:

So that was a huge announcement by Albanese, something that he can talk about in the lead up to the election. Does that tell us anything about election timing, and what are some of the possible dates for the election?

PAUL:

By legislation, an election campaign must go 33 days. It can go a hell of a lot longer if a prime minister wants that to happen. So if we take the 33 day rule, Albanese would have to call an election, say, for March 29 by February 25. So that's still an option. However, there is a big fly in the ointment, and that is the March 8 state election in Western Australia. And one cabinet minister told me not only does Albanese want to steer clear, doesn't want to blur the lines between state and federal for the WA election, but he's been begged not to by the Labor Premier over there, Roger Cook. So that would suggest he could call one maybe towards the end of that campaign.

So people are then thinking, well, March 11, or just a couple of days before, Albanese will get in the car and go out to Government House to call an election for April 12. And the good thing about April 12 is it avoids both Anzac Day and Easter, and it avoids the March 8 WA election. So, you know, put your money on that.

DANIEL:

I'm not a betting man, Paul, but I just might. You’ve reported on a lot of elections in your time. Do you think that this rate cut, which could be a one off and which will only have a modest impact on people's mortgage repayments, will make any real difference to the campaign?

PAUL:

Well, look, without a doubt, it's the most anticipated rate cut that I can remember, and there's also no doubt that it has huge political implications. It's a watershed, a circuit breaker, if you like. It turns the argument on economic management around, and it gives credibility to the claims of the treasurer that it's his economic management, it's the government's economic management that has succeeded in bringing inflation down and creating the atmospherics for the Reserve Bank to have enough confidence to begin cutting interest rates.

But by comparison already, the opposition seems to be offering banalities like back to basics of economic management and cutting spending. Well, cutting spending, whatever way you shake it, means more pain for the very people you said Labor's put into too much pain already.

DANIEL:

Coming up after the break - Dutton goes missing.

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DANIEL:

Paul, it's been a good week for the Albanese government. How was Peter Dutton's week?

PAUL:

Yes, well, it was quite noticeable that Peter Dutton on the afternoon of the announcement left his shadow treasurer to, as it were, carry the can.

Audio Excerpt - Angus Taylor:

“The truth is that this is too little too late for many Australian families who have seen the biggest collapse in their standard of living in history.”

PAUL:

Old heads and old hands in the press gallery do notice that if the government does get good news, Peter Dutton tends to disappear from the media; Angus Taylor was left by Peter Dutton to carry most of the burden of replying to this good news for the government.

Audio Excerpt - News Host (ABC):

“Can you name one policy that is going to drive down the cost of living for the rest of this year if you win government in what could be six, seven, eight weeks time?”

Audio Excerpt - Angus Taylor:

“All of those policies will help to bring down the cost of living.”

Audio Excerpt - News Host (ABC):

“Hmm.”

Audio Excerpt - Angus Taylor:

“Because that's what economic management does.”

PAUL:

But Dutton so far has been pretty loose. We got a pretty stark example of that in a key interview he gave, a long form interview he gave on Sky News Sunday Agenda last weekend. It showed that Dutton was more inclined to stay as opposition leader rather than alternative prime minister. He was out scoring cheap political points against the government for the way it was handling the threat of President Trump's tariffs.

But he wasn't actually on top of what the government had done. You know, he called for ministers to go to Washington and it was pointed out to him, well hang on, the deputy prime minister was in Washington on previous days.

Audio Excerpt - Peter Dutton:

“Richard Marles is a nice guy, but he’s batting fairly significantly down the list in terms of the Government’s key hitters…”

Audio Excerpt - Andrew Clennel (Sky News):

“Richard Marles is the deputy prime minister, why would you say he’s batting down the order?”

Audio Excerpt - Peter Dutton:

“Well I just don’t think…again, I…I’m friends with Richard and I like Richard but, I just don’t think he has the gravitas that the prime minister would have if he had attended…”

PAUL:

He also didn't seem in calling for our Trade Minister to talk to his counterpart in America. At that point of time, the Trade Secretary hadn't been sworn in. So, you know, that seemed to be quite indicative of someone who hadn't done his homework, was winging it too much.

But in that interview, what really caught the breath of commentators and indeed his Coalition partners in the nationals, he announced what looked like something off the top of his head that raised the prospect of forcing insurance companies to divest if they don't bring their premiums down. Now, he has put his finger on a very sore point, particularly in far North Queensland, which has been hit by devastating weather, cyclones and floods this summer. But of course we have the bushfires in Victoria and elsewhere and it's true, people simply aren't taking out insurance because they can't afford it.

DANIEL:

Can you tell me about the reaction to this announcement, what the reaction to this has been?

PAUL:

Well the insurance council was flabbergasted. For one thing it seemed that Dutton was unaware of a 10 billion dollar cyclone reinsurance pool that was set up by the Morrison government - the government he was part of in 2022. Also Littleproud went on television next day and said ‘well, this isn't policy’.

Audio Excerpt - News Host (ABC RN):

“Is this a policy that has been approved by the joint party?”

Audio Excerpt - David Littleproud:

“Because it's not a policy that was announced, what Peter Dutton has said is that he's very clear; we are prepared to use whatever policy lever we need to to ensure that Australians cost a living and consumers are being treated fairly. That's what you want from government.”

Audio Excerpt - News Host (ABC RN):

“So it's not actually a policy?”

Audio Excerpt - David Littleproud:

“Well, it wasn't announced as a policy. I don't think…I think it would be unfair to say that that was a policy announced by Peter Dutton.”

DANIEL:

So what do you think is going on here, Paul, with Dutton making the seemingly off the cuff policy announcements?

PAUL:

Well, I think that Dutton clearly has got an ear for the things that are playing out there. No one can deny that insurance is a major issue, but Albanese has made the observation that the opposition simply haven't done their policy work. It seems that Dutton, maybe with an eye to how Trump got in in America, wants to get in on the vibe. If he talks insurance and taking on the big insurers, that's all he has to do and people will rush to vote for him. It was quite interesting the next day he doubled down and he said, I'm warning insurance companies now, unless they do something before we get elected, they better look out when we get elected.

The opinion polls do show the Coalition with an edge, but it's only an edge. And 51/49, which is the average of all the published polls at the moment, is basically statistically line ball. So while NewsPoll was told recently that voters are seriously considering a change, the two party vote shows they haven't yet found a credible alternative.

DANIEL:

And finally, Paul, one of the main criticisms of the government is that it hasn't been very good at spruiking its own achievements, telling its own story. Is there enough time for them to start doing that this late in their term?

PAUL:

Well, they are incumbents and they've been there for only three years. And Albanese, as a communicator, has not sold his government well. But mind you, it wouldn't matter who was in government in these tight times. Selling your government well would always be difficult.

However, I think the focus is now coming down to the choices that are on offer. And what Albanese can rightly claim is that we've done more than the Coalition wanted to allow us to do, which then puts the focus on the alternative to show that it is as caring of people's pain as Labor's tried to be. But look, in our system of compulsory voting, it simply does come down to not the ideal you want, if you could ever get it, but the devil you know versus the devil you don't know.

DANIEL:

Paul, thank you so much for your time.

PAUL:

Thank you, Daniel. Bye.

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DANIEL:

Also in the news today,

The artist Khaled Sabsabi and curator Michael Dagostino will not be reinstated as Australia’s representatives at the next Venice Biennale, despite thousands of artists calling for the decision to be overturned.

This was confirmed by Creative Australia’s chair Robert Morgan and executive director Adrian Collette, at an all-staff meeting on Thursday.

It is now increasingly likely that Australia will not be represented at the 2026 event.

And, a joint press conference between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the U.S. special envoy for Ukraine and Russia has been cancelled.

Retired general Keith Kellogg was due to brief the press alongside Mr Zelensky after a meeting on Thursday local time, but Mr Zelensky’s office says the U.S. called for the appearance to be cancelled.

The cancellation comes at a critical time as U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been discussing an end to the war. Discussions Ukraine has not been invited to.

I’m Daniel James, this is 7am. Have a great weekend.

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